## Wednesday, February 11, 2015

### Probability Experiments.

Progress continues.

Precious little #0 will clear for sharing, however.

I can discuss something regarding past projects.

Probability Pressure.

It doesn't exist, but it's nonexistence defies human understanding.

Allow me to explain. Take a coin and flip it around 600 times (Always being sure to log the result accurately.) You know heading into this that a coin with two sides the probability should be 50/50. But your luck is running weird today, a full 500 of those came up heads.

So, what are the odds of the next 400 turning up tails? 50/50, the same as when you started. That said, if you continue to chart a random walk long enough the average number tails will come back into equilibrium.

So exactly how random is it really? And yet, probability pressure is not agreed on to be a proper thing among many professionals.

It is a tempting concept though, isn't it? After all, a proper ability to recognize statistical pressure would be, among other things, profoundly profitable. Yet there is no proven way to manipulate it.

Still, where Science fails it's backwater nine-toed distant cousin Superstition provides.

Look at people who play games relying on random number generation. I point specifically at Board Gamers and old fashioned table-top role-players.

 Unasked Courtesy of Darths and Droids
Really, the superstitions are as myriad as they are hilarious.

Of course, there is a question to be asked as to whether or not probability is something we WOULD want to control. After all, in every game dice are rolled in it was the agreement of the creators at least that the entertainment value would be greater if no one actually knew the number outcome.

Furthermore if any of the above superstitions actually worked, they would almost certainly be banned by the players themselves to ensure an even playing field.

Would any of those games even be of any interest to people without that element of the random?

Now, while all such above grasping is futile, it is important to note that probability can indeed be manipulated.

Why, as sentient and deeply thinking entities Humans manipulate the odds on a daily basis.

Walk to work? Odds of dying in a car crash in which you are at fault decrease dramatically,

Put on clothes? Odds of arrest for indecent exposure drop to nil. (Provided you did it right.)

Drive to work? Odds of being bitten by a dog en-route effectively nonexistant.

We have extensively jiggered with the odds in ways to preserve our wellbeing, so not being able to influence the outcome of dice with pre-rolling is a small thing to tolerate I suspect.

And while I am sure there are benefits to finding novel ways to influence random number generation, I am most certainly not announcing any such method as the applications to gambling are devastating, and I would not be surprised if Casino concerns didn't have at least one person keeping an ear on scientific breakthroughs regarding probability- or would be unwilling to have the herald of such a breakthrough "disappeared".

And it most certainly isn't vaguely related to pre-rolling numbers out of die.

Progress continues!